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UBS economists warn that a 10% US tariff on Eurozone imports could significantly hinder growth, potentially reducing GDP by 0.28 to 0.43 percentage points, depending on Europe's response. The primary impact stems from declining exports, with inflation effects varying based on retaliation. If Europe does not retaliate, inflation remains subdued; however, retaliatory measures could increase consumer prices and the GDP deflator.
On his final day as the Reserve Bank of India governor, Shaktikanta Das emphasized the transformative potential of a home-grown central bank digital currency (CBDC), the digital rupee. He highlighted India's pioneering role in CBDC development, contrasting it with the slow progress of other central banks globally. Das advised a cautious approach to implementing a system-wide CBDC, advocating for gradual introduction based on user data from pilot projects, while expressing confidence in its future role in domestic and cross-border payment systems.
The global airline industry is projected to achieve a net income of $36.6 billion in 2025, with a record 5.2 billion passengers expected to travel. This marks a 16% increase from 2024, driven by lower oil prices and rising demand, despite potential challenges from tariffs and trade wars. Profit margins are anticipated to rise to 3.6%, up from 3.3% in the previous year.
Chinese leaders have issued one of their most dovish statements in over a decade, indicating a readiness to implement necessary stimulus measures to mitigate the anticipated effects of U.S. trade tariffs on the country's economic growth in the coming year.
Investors are showing strong interest in short-term Nigerian government debt, attracted by high yields and an improved currency outlook following a successful $2.2 billion eurobond launch. The Central Bank of Nigeria sold 1.56 trillion naira ($990 million) in 365-day and 351-day bills at yields nearing 24%, significantly exceeding its initial target after a successful treasury bill auction.
Inflation in Hungary accelerated for the second consecutive month, driven by rising food and service costs alongside a significant decline in the forint, which has reached a two-year low. Consumer prices increased by 3.7% in November, up from 3.2% in October, aligning with economists' forecasts. Month-on-month, prices rose by 0.5%.
A group of finance executives in South Africa is working on proposals to enable foreign-currency transactions on stock and bond exchanges. Leila Fourie, chair of the South African Financial Sector Competitiveness Taskforce, emphasized the importance of capitalizing on the country's improved international market standing to enhance its competitiveness as a financial hub in Africa.
Poland's Deputy Defense Minister Cezary Tomczyk has urged Germany to increase its defense spending to lead the European Union amid concerns over US military support for Ukraine. He also proposed exploring joint EU debt financing for military expenditures, a move opposed by Berlin, to enhance preparedness against Russian aggression.
China's exports experienced slower growth in November compared to the previous month, while imports unexpectedly declined. This trend raises concerns for the world's second-largest economy, especially with Donald Trump's potential return to the White House introducing new trade risks.
BMW's Mexico chief anticipates stagnant auto sales in 2025, impacted by a weakening peso and slow economic growth amid rising trade tensions from the U.S. The luxury vehicle market is expected to maintain its volume, with growth projected at 0.5% to 1.5% in 2024.
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